The Resource Annual exceedance probability analysis, by Masako Amai Gardner

Annual exceedance probability analysis, by Masako Amai Gardner

Label
Annual exceedance probability analysis
Title
Annual exceedance probability analysis
Statement of responsibility
by Masako Amai Gardner
Creator
Subject
Genre
Language
eng
Summary
Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) is the method used by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to determine the probability of flooding caused by the failure of a levee or other flood control structure. This method shows the probability of flooding only at one particular location at a time. In order to overcome the limitation of AEP, a new method of studying flood probability, called an AEP map, was presented. By using hydrologic and hydraulic modeling software, an AEP map can be created to determine and visualize the spatial distribution of the probability of flooding. An AEP map represents a continuous solution of the probability of flooding and can be used to derive not only the limits of the typical 100-year inundation, but any other return period including the 20-year, 50-year, 500-year storm flood. The AEP map can be more useful than traditional flood hazard maps, since it makes it possible to evaluate the probability of flooding at any location within the floodplain. In the process of creating the AEP map, it is necessary to run number of simulations in order to accurately represent the probability distribution of flooding. The objective of this research, given a desktop computer of today2s capacity, is to demonstrate the convergence of AEP maps after a reasonable number of simulations, so that users can have some guidelines to decide how many simulations are necessary. The Virgin River, UT is the primary study area for this research, with Gila River, AZ also used to support the results. The result of this research demonstrates the convergence of AEP maps by illustrating the convergence of water surface elevations computed as part of the hydraulic simulation leading up to the floodplain delineation model. If the average water surface elevations converge, then the resulting floodplain delineation (AEP maps) should also converge. The result proves that AEP maps do converge with a reasonable number of simulations. This research also shows the convergence of floodplain areas to demonstrate the convergence of AEP maps
Cataloging source
UPB
Degree
M.S.
Dissertation year
2005
Granting institution
Brigham Young University. Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Illustrations
illustrations
Index
no index present
Literary form
non fiction
Nature of contents
  • bibliography
  • theses
Label
Annual exceedance probability analysis, by Masako Amai Gardner
Link
http://hdl.lib.byu.edu/1877/etd944
Instantiates
Publication
Accompanying material
1 computer optical disc (4 3/4 in.)
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references (p. 65-66)
Carrier category
volume
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Content category
text
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Dimensions
28 cm. +
Extent
xviii, 66 p.
Media category
unmediated
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Other physical details
ill. (some col.)
System control number
(OCoLC)ocn373811398
Label
Annual exceedance probability analysis, by Masako Amai Gardner
Link
http://hdl.lib.byu.edu/1877/etd944
Publication
Accompanying material
1 computer optical disc (4 3/4 in.)
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references (p. 65-66)
Carrier category
volume
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Content category
text
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Dimensions
28 cm. +
Extent
xviii, 66 p.
Media category
unmediated
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Other physical details
ill. (some col.)
System control number
(OCoLC)ocn373811398

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